How this constellation of shoebox

Bella Isaacs-Thomas Bella Isaacs-Thomas

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As this year's Atlantic hurricane season officially begins, a newly launched mission is gearing up to more closely study these storms, and could eventually help forecasters offer more accurate information so people have more time to prepare or seek safety.

To study tropical cyclones, a category that includes hurricanes, TROPICS is harnessing the power of small satellites. This collaboration between academic institutions and federal agencies involves four CubeSats, which are only the size of a shoe box, arranged in a kind of constellation that's now orbiting the Earth. The first two CubeSats were sent up into low-Earth orbit in early May, while the final two completed a successful launch at the end of last month.

Among the factors that set this mission apart is the constellation's orbital configuration – spanning the mid-Atlantic of the United States to the southern coast of Australia – plus the frequency of its observations.

While other satellites might orbit the poles and observe a single hurricane twice a day, the TROPICS satellites make hourly observations above the tropical-to-subtropical part of the planet and all the storms that form in those waters, said Jason Dunion, meteorologist and director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hurricane Field Program.

Observing storms more frequently will allow researchers to get a better sense of how they change on a shorter timescale. That includes when they undergo rapid intensification, he said, a rare phenomenon in which storms get dramatically stronger in a matter of hours.

Hurricanes are categorized based on their sustained wind speed. During rapid intensification, those speeds increase 35 mph or more over the course of 24 hours — a Category 1 storm can quickly jump to a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, Dunion said. More frequent observations of hurricanes should allow researchers to "stay ahead of the curve" of rapid intensification, and eventually provide earlier warning, he said.

"Being able to actually see these storms within every hour throughout the day [through TROPICS] is a pretty incredible advancement," Dunion said.

Each CubeSat is equipped with 12 microwave channels that measure variables, from temperature and moisture to precipitation. Dunion noted that one channel that's especially sensitive to ice has not yet been used to study hurricanes and could offer more information on storm structure.

These satellites are much smaller than other more expensive ones that are used to measure weather variables, but they pack a big punch in terms of the research they can conduct, said TROPICS principal investigator William Blackwell, who is based at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Lincoln Lab. Plus, they’re comparatively cheaper to launch.

Blackwell said the TROPICS mission was born out of a need to collect information that's so far been difficult to gather. Broadly speaking, he explained, the data collected by weather satellites can be categorized in a few different ways:

In this illustration, satellites from the TROPICS mission collect vital climate information while orbiting close to Earth's surface. Image courtesy of Jason Dunion/NOAA

Right now, researchers can collect visible-infrared data in LEO and GEO positions. They can also collect microwave data in LEO. But they can't yet collect one specific combination: microwave data in GEO.

TROPICS offers a workaround solution to accessing that data, Blackwell said, because the mission's constellation structure allows the four satellites to effectively offer the same microwave data researchers would want from a single GEO sensor but instead from low-Earth orbit.

"Technology today — finally — allows us to miniaturize these satellites, fly a lot of them and get that temporal update that we’ve been wanting for so long," he said.

Though all four satellites in the constellation are in orbit, it’ll take a few more weeks to get the two recent additions fully up and running. The first two are nearing the end of their calibration process but are already producing images, Blackwell said.

The early days of the mission will demonstrate the kinds of novel information these satellites can offer. It could take a while before the researchers know whether the information they collect can be fully integrated into public forecasts.

Hurricane season begins June 1 for the Atlantic and the central Pacific; it began May 15 for the eastern Pacific. It ends in all three regions on Nov. 30.

In late May, Typhoon Mawar wreaked havoc in Guam, causing flooding and infrastructure damage but resulting in no reported deaths. (Hurricanes and typhoons are different terms for the same phenomenon.)

NOAA predicted last week that the Atlantic will see a near-normal level of hurricane activity. Experts anticipate that five to nine named storms could grow into hurricanes, with between one and four of those having wind speeds of 111 miles per hour or higher. That would make them at least Category 3 storms.

Deputy Commerce Secretary Don Graves touted improvements in NOAA's hurricane forecasting abilities during a May 25 news conference, noting that the agency's seven-day forecasts are now as accurate as five-day ones.

One factor that will influence how this year's hurricane season plays out is El Niño — a climate pattern that involves a warming of surface water in parts of the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide — which is expected to develop this summer.

Unlike the opposing climate force La Niña, El Niño is associated with suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic. That's because winds in the Atlantic, and especially in the western Atlantic and in the Caribbean, tend to be more hostile to storm formation during El Niño years, Dunion said. This year's transition into El Niño marks the end of three years of La Niña.

But that's not the only factor that influences hurricane season. The waters of the Atlantic are warmer than usual, and warm waters fuel stronger storms, which can potentially cause more damage.

READ MORE: How warm water turbocharged Hurricane Ian in less than a day

Federal officials are emphasizing that the potentially good news of a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season doesn't make emergency preparedness any less crucial – communities should ensure they have the resources and planning necessary to protect themselves long before any storm makes landfall.

"It only takes one strong [landfalling] storm to make a difference, even in a quiet year," Dunion said. "[Even] if we expect to see a quieter year, it doesn't mean you shouldn't prepare for possible storms, especially along the coastline."

Left: A destroyed building in Volusia County is pictured after Hurricane Nicole made landfall on Florida's east coast in Daytona Beach Shores, Florida, U.S., November 11, 2022. Marco Bello/Reuters

By Seth Borenstein, Associated Press

By Seth Borenstein, Associated Press

By Seth Borenstein, Associated Press

Bella Isaacs-Thomas Bella Isaacs-Thomas

Bella Isaacs-Thomas is a digital reporter on the PBS NewsHour's science desk.